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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 29, 2002 at 07= :06AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 29, 2002 at 09:38AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulati= ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI= LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:= AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Ado= be Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of= 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 52 -1 ERCOT(SP) 77 +1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 63 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 -6 MA= PP(HP) 18 -3 NPCC(NE) 48 +4 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 54 -7 WSCC(NW) 31 NC WSC= C(RK) 26 +2 WSCC(SW) 47 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 20 47 28 24 69 69 42 Max 40 29 53 31 33 = 75 73 47 Min 29 15 42 25 18 63 65 38 Range 11 14 11 6 15 12 8 9 StD-P 2.2 3= .4 2.9 2.2 4.8 3.6 2.0 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discuss= ion: A very healthy spring/winter storm to deal with in the short term. T= his storm will bring about a pattern change, though still nothing severe in= terms of cold. A mixed bag of precipitation has developed today over the = Central Plains. A healthy combination of shallow cold air in the North and = record warmth in the South will help spin up a sizeable storm in the Southe= rn Plains later today that will turn to the NE. There are a variety of wint= er weather watches out from Kansas, Missouri , Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois= . More can be expected through the Great Lakes and New England later in the= week. There will be snow with this, but also some potential for significan= t freezing rain as well. The storm track is expected to run from NW Texas t= o just South of Chicago then Western New York. To the South, this is a rain= ! event with some thunderstorms as well. This storm will serve to collapse= the strong ridge that has been in place over the Eastern U.S. I certainly = expect a drop from the record highs of recent days, but nothing in the eart= h shattering cold category. In fact, the raw numbers from the MRF have tren= ded warmer the last few runs. Since we dont have a thick snow cover to tap = from, I believe the period of cold setting up will not be as harsh as what = we saw in late December. As all of this is going on, some of the chill that= has invaded the West will be lifting out. I don't see a big run to above n= ormal with a surface high still sitting over the plateau region, but it sho= uld not be as cold as the last couple of days. Tomorrow: Wednesday, Janu= ary 30, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I= MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 -1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +4 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 56 -3 MAIN(= CTR) 33 +3 MAPP(HP) 18 +2 NPCC(NE) 35 -7 SERC(SE) 74 +1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(= NW) 34 -1 WSCC(RK) 19 +1 WSCC(SW) 47 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 18 43 31 17 71 64 42 Max 36= 21 53 34 29 75 73 47 Min 28 14 33 28 11 68 59 37 Range 8 7 20 6 18 7 14 10= StD-P 2.2 2.3 3.4 1.4 4.3 2.8 2.9 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click = Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day = 3: Thursday, January 31, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit= y Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image= to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 +4 ERCOT(SP) 61 +6 FRCC(SE) 81 +1 MAA= C(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(CTR) 33 +5 MAPP(HP) 20 +3 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 71 +4 SP= P(SP) 37 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 -1 Range Standard= Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 20 37 35 1= 8 70 56 44 Max 37 23 45 39 24 75 64 49 Min 31 17 31 32 12 66 52 38 Range 6 = 6 14 7 12 9 12 11 StD-P 1.6 2.2 4.1 1.9 3.4 2.6 2.5 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 1= 2 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatil= ity Matrix Day 4: Friday, February 1, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta = Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +5 ERCOT(SP) 53 NC F= RCC(SE) 79 +3 MAAC(NE) 55 +7 MAIN(CTR) 27 +3 MAPP(HP) 21 +3 NPCC(NE) 41 +2 = SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 52 -1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW M= ean 28 24 44 36 23 63 46 47 Max 35 29 50 40 30 73 55 52 Min 24 20 34 32 15 = 60 38 43 Range 11 9 16 8 15 13 17 9 StD-P 3.1 2.9 4.6 1.8 3.9 4.1 4.8 2.4 C= ount 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used = Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Saturday, February 2, 2002 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 = +2 ERCOT(SP) 54 +1 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 36 -2 MAIN(CTR) 30 +2 MAPP(HP) 2= 8 +3 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 52 +1 SPP(SP) 45 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 34= NC WSCC(SW) 55 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 29 28 38 27 52 48 50 Max 30 34 48 42 34 66 52 55= Min 19 27 20 33 18 43 41 46 Range 11 7 28 9 16 23 11 9 StD-P 2.1 2.6 7.2 1= .7 4.3 6.1 4.0 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each We= ather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: W= hile the talk in recent outlooks for the 6-10 day period has centered on co= ld, it is interesting to note the new 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the N= WS still have a warm bias to them. There is not a big snow cover on the gro= und, a split flow in the jet stream is expected and the polar vortex in Can= ada continues a slow retreat. With all of that as a backdrop, the slight po= sitive departures look reasonable to me. We may however crank out a "Clippe= r Type" storm next week in the Great Lakes and New England. These can somet= imes be more prodigious snow makers than the big "Plains type" counterpart = we are currently seeing. This is especially true if the air flows over the = Lakes at the right angle, something I won't even try to predict this far ou= t. Other than this system, I don't see much action in the 6-10 day period. = Howeve! r, there is some potential for another storm to emerge out of the S= W just after this. Day 6: Sunday, February 3, 2002 Click Here for Syn= crasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +3 ERCOT(SP) 59 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 = MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 35 +4 MAPP(HP) 30 +2 NPCC(NE) 27 +1 SERC(SE) 52 -1= SPP(SP) 46 -1 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 31 25 3= 8 30 51 51 52 Max 32 35 30 43 37 56 56 57 Min 26 27 16 35 24 45 45 48 Range= 6 8 14 8 13 11 11 9 StD-P 2.0 2.3 4.0 2.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 2.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility M= atrix Day 7: Monday, February 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cli= ck on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +2 ERCOT(SP) 62 +1 FRCC(SE= ) 70 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 +3 MAIN(CTR) 35 +3 MAPP(HP) 29 -1 NPCC(NE) 32 +2 SERC(S= E) 55 +2 SPP(SP) 48 NC WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 NC Ran= ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31= 32 29 40 31 51 53 54 Max 33 35 35 43 39 58 59 58 Min 28 28 23 37 23 46 48 = 51 Range 5 7 12 6 16 12 11 7 StD-P 1.3 2.0 2.7 1.8 5.0 3.3 3.1 2.0 Count 9 = 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola= tility Matrix Day 8: Tuesday, February 5, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: De= lta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 +2 ERCOT(SP) 57 = +3 FRCC(SE) 63 -1 MAAC(NE) 36 -3 MAIN(CTR) 34 +6 MAPP(HP) 32 +9 NPCC(NE) 33= NC SERC(SE) 47 -2 SPP(SP) 44 +5 WSCC(NW) 38 +1 WSCC(RK) 34 +3 WSCC(SW) 52 = -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP = SW Mean 32 34 30 40 35 52 54 55 Max 34 36 36 44 43 58 62 60 Min 28 30 24 37= 27 49 48 52 Range 6 6 12 7 16 9 14 8 StD-P 1.5 2.1 3.0 2.2 3.8 3.2 3.4 2.8= Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within= the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, February 6, 2002 Syncrasy's C= hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +13 ER= COT(SP) 63 +8 FRCC(SE) 65 +5 MAAC(NE) 39 +9 MAIN(CTR) 31 +14 MAPP(HP) 22 NC= NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +9 SPP(SP) 51 +4 WSCC(NW) 34 -4 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 = WSCC(SW) 51 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 34 34 37 33 53 56 52 Max 35 37 37 43 43 58 61 60 Min= 29 31 29 33 25 49 49 48 Range 6 6 8 10 18 9 12 12 StD-P 1.4 2.2 1.8 3.1 6.= 4 2.7 4.1 3.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thursday, February 7, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 31 +7 ERCOT(SP) 57 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 +6 MAAC(NE) 41 +14 MAIN(CTR) 24 +2 M= APP(HP) 10 -15 NPCC(NE) 24 +7 SERC(SE) 56 +12 SPP(SP) 35 -8 WSCC(NW) 34 -3 = WSCC(RK) 22 -6 WSCC(SW) 49 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 24 29 32 21 50 47 44 Max 29 28 32 34 = 26 58 52 49 Min 21 22 28 27 14 40 38 37 Range 8 6 4 7 12 18 14 12 StD-P 2.9= 2.1 0.8 2.0 2.7 6.4 4.7 5.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each = Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is des= igned around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? an= d DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or = www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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