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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Feb 06, 2002 at = 07:06AM EST Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Feb 06, 2002 at 09:14AM = EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy /True Quote Congratul= ations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 A= QUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please vis= it: AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have = Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition= of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Wednesday, February 6,= 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAG= E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 38 -1 ERCOT(SP) 49 NC FRCC(SE) 75 +3 MAAC(NE) 41 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36= -1 MAPP(HP) 38 +1 NPCC(NE) 30 -1 SERC(SE) 44 -1 SPP(SP) 37 -1 WSCC(NW) 41 = -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAG= E] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 36 29 39 32 51 45 54 Max 40 43 35 = 41 39 54 48 58 Min 31 30 23 36 23 50 43 51 Range 9 13 12 5 16 4 5 7 StD-P 2= .2 3.3 2.7 2.0 4.7 1.2 1.4 2.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to= See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Dis= cussion: More troughing in the East and ridging in the West. Pattern devel= oping as advertised, but will the cold air materialize? The Southern strea= m storm track is alive and well and should continue to be so for the next c= ouple of weeks. All of the models point to the potential of healthy winter = storms in the midst of a warmer than normal temperature pattern. The lack o= f realized cold continues to frustrate me as once again the air simply is n= ot that frigid. We are still below normal relative to normal over much of t= he South and West. In the West, it is due to high pressure trapped in the I= ntermountain region while in the South it is in response to inclement weath= er along the storm track. The North and East are back into a warming mode i= n spite of the fact that a trough will reform in the East. Upstream over th= e Western h! alf of Canada, it is just not that cold anymore. The MRF is up= to its old tricks of a sharp cooling "just past this period" and the Canad= ian still insists on a moderate intensity high coming down this weekend. It= may well turn cooler, but certainly not in an excessive way. The five day = numbers will be warming, not cooling. Tomorrow: Thursday, February 7, = 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 41 -1 ERCOT(SP) 58 NC FRCC(SE) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 42 -3 MAIN(CTR) 42 = +2 MAPP(HP) 40 +3 NPCC(NE) 38 +4 SERC(SE) 49 NC SPP(SP) 49 +2 WSCC(NW) 43 -= 1 WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(SW) 59 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 39 36 39 37 52 51 55 Max 42 47 42 4= 3 44 55 57 59 Min 32 34 33 36 28 50 45 52 Range 10 13 9 7 16 5 12 7 StD-P 3= .1 4.0 2.4 2.2 4.2 1.2 3.5 2.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to= See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Frida= y, February 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlar= ge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 48 +5 ERCOT(SP) 64 NC FRCC(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 49 = +2 MAIN(CTR) 46 +4 MAPP(HP) 39 NC NPCC(NE) 39 +4 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 56 = +1 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 -4 WSCC(SW) 60 -2 Range Standard Deviatio= n [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 38 36 40 35 53 57 5= 6 Max 44 46 43 44 44 61 62 60 Min 34 34 29 36 26 48 53 51 Range 10 12 14 8 = 18 13 9 9 StD-P 2.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 5.4 3.2 2.2 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 = 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Day 4: Saturday, February 9, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cli= ck on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 48 +3 ERCOT(SP) 61 -4 FRCC(SE= ) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 52 +4 MAIN(CTR) 39 +1 MAPP(HP) 32 -1 NPCC(NE) 38 NC SERC(S= E) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 46 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 -1 WSCC(SW) 63 -1 Ran= ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37= 36 37 42 31 57 56 58 Max 42 43 43 47 40 62 63 63 Min 34 31 30 36 23 53 49 = 54 Range 8 12 13 11 17 9 14 9 StD-P 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.7 5.8 2.4 4.0 2.7 Count 1= 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within= the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Sunday, February 10, 2002 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 +4 ERCOT= (SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 49 +3 MAIN(CTR) 38 +1 MAPP(HP) 36 +3 NPC= C(NE) 40 NC SERC(SE) 56 NC SPP(SP) 53 -1 WSCC(NW) 45 +1 WSCC(RK) 45 +1 WSCC= (SW) 66 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW R= K SE SP SW Mean 36 39 41 41 38 56 52 61 Max 39 45 46 45 46 62 59 66 Min 31 = 36 37 37 33 50 45 55 Range 8 9 9 8 13 12 14 11 StD-P 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.= 9 4.4 1.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather For= ecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 d= ay period appears to be much more favorable for talk of storms rather than = any excessive cold. We are rapidly running out of time for that as normal t= emperatures are now on their way up. We may not see anything extreme, but I= still see some potential for the East being slightly below normal for the = period if the Canadian is on the right track. The models do seem to show ri= dging to continue out West. It has been a very slow process, but moderation= should continue. Day 6: Monday, February 11, 2002 Click Here for Syncr= asy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 42 NC ERCOT(SP) 66 NC FRCC(SE) 69 -1 MA= AC(NE) 46 +1 MAIN(CTR) 41 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 +7 NPCC(NE) 38 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 S= PP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 44 +6 WSCC(SW) 62 +3 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 41 37 38 = 38 54 56 59 Max 40 45 42 46 47 61 64 65 Min 34 36 31 33 31 47 53 52 Range 6= 9 11 13 16 14 11 13 StD-P 1.8 2.2 2.6 4.2 4.4 4.1 2.6 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility M= atrix Day 7: Tuesday, February 12, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp.= Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cl= ick on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +3 ERCOT(SP) 68 +2 FRCC(S= E) 73 NC MAAC(NE) 49 +2 MAIN(CTR) 37 +4 MAPP(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(= SE) 61 +2 SPP(SP) 52 +4 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 35 +1 WSCC(SW) 61 +4 Ra= nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 3= 6 33 38 37 33 56 59 57 Max 40 46 41 45 47 63 65 63 Min 31 26 29 27 24 52 54= 51 Range 9 20 12 18 23 11 11 12 StD-P 2.9 5.0 2.5 5.6 6.6 2.6 3.2 3.8 Coun= t 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the = Volatility Matrix Day 8: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 Syncrasy's Choic= e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 -2 ERCOT(S= P) 53 +6 FRCC(SE) 67 -3 MAAC(NE) 48 -3 MAIN(CTR) 23 NC MAPP(HP) 11 -10 NPCC= (NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 57 -1 SPP(SP) 26 -7 WSCC(NW) 30 -2 WSCC(RK) 14 -9 WSCC(= SW) 48 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK= SE SP SW Mean 31 31 38 38 30 57 53 55 Max 40 42 45 43 45 61 65 63 Min 24 1= 8 30 30 12 50 46 47 Range 16 24 15 13 33 11 19 16 StD-P 4.2 7.0 4.0 4.6 9.4= 3.6 5.1 4.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast= Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, February 14, 2002 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 21 -4 ERCOT(SP) 38 -13 FRCC(SE) 67 +1 MAAC(NE) 40 -8 MAIN(CTR) 20 -7 MAPP= (HP) 23 -6 NPCC(NE) 32 -11 SERC(SE) 48 +2 SPP(SP) 31 -10 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSC= C(RK) 23 -4 WSCC(SW) 52 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 35 33 39 33 54 51 55 Max 38 40 38 44 41 = 61 62 61 Min 20 28 28 35 23 47 36 51 Range 18 12 10 9 18 14 26 10 StD-P 5.0= 3.8 2.2 3.3 7.1 3.8 8.5 3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each = Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, Febru= ary 15, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I= MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 22 -8 ERCOT(SP) 45 -9 FRCC(SE) 52 -10 MAAC(NE) 16 -13 MAI= N(CTR) 31 -3 MAPP(HP) 34 -2 NPCC(NE) 15 -4 SERC(SE) 34 -11 SPP(SP) 43 -6 WS= CC(NW) 37 +6 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 +11 Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 32 22 35 26 42 46 48 Ma= x 35 37 28 39 32 49 52 56 Min 26 27 14 30 11 37 40 36 Range 9 10 14 9 21 12= 12 20 StD-P 2.0 4.5 5.0 3.0 6.1 4.8 3.3 7.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click He= re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trade= r Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays,= RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.sy= ncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] = =09 =09=09=09
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